As September comes to a close once again, I think that we should pause for a moment to honor Brewers manager Craig Counsell, the sovereign of September, the emperor of the expanded roster, the king of the closing stretch. For the second straight year, my beloved Milwaukee Brewers caught fire in the last month of the series, launching an epic run into the postseason.
Last year the Brewers went 19-7 in September (and 22-7 after August 28). They went from 6 games back in the NL Central on August 28 to tied for the divison lead on September 30 and then won the tiebreaker game in Chicago. Counting the tiebreaker game, the Brew Crew ended the season with 8 straight victories. (I blogged about the 2018 Brewers after that tiebreaker game in a post titled "Game 163.")
This year the Brewers went 20-7 in September (and 21-7 after August 30). On September 5 the Brewers were 5 games back in the race for the 2nd wild card, and on September 29 they finished the season 2 games ahead. And even that's selling things short. They clinched that playoff spot on September 25 and then won again the next day to cap off a 20-4 stretch that saw them win 18 of 20 games with two separate 7-game winning streaks. Now sadly a mini-collapse in Colorado in the last series of the season doomed the Brewers' hopes of a second-straight division title. But even with 3 straight loses to close the year, those September numbers are insane.
Let's dig a little deeper. 19-7 (winning percentage: .731) and 20-7 (.741) are bonkers months. Last year's Brewers were legitimately good, going 95-67 (.587) in the scheduled season and 96-67 (.589) with the tiebreaker game. But based on stats, the Brewers would've been expected to go 91-72 (.558), so they outperformed expectations by 5 games. This year's Brewers are not nearly as good. The Crew has maybe 1.5 real starting pitchers. Last year we had three main relievers: Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, and Jeremy Jeffress. Knebel never pitched this year due to an injury. Jeffress was designated for assignment just before September after a disappointing season. Christian Yelich, the reigning NL MVP and serious MVP candidate again this year, went down for the season on September 10. (Counting that day, the Crew went 14-5 [.737] without Yeli.) The Brewers finished the year 89-73 (.549), scoring just 3 more runs than they allowed. The Crew would've been expected to finish 81-81 (.500), so they outperformed expectations by 8 games.
A lot of the credit for these amzing finishes obviously goes to the players. But as I said at the beginning, I want to recognize Craig Counsell. Currently teams are allowed to have 40-man rosters in September. The last couple years, Counsell has been a master of using extra pitchers out of the bullpen to win game after game even though the Brewers' pitching staff is not nearly as talented as a lot of other organizations' staffs, especially when it comes to starting pitchers. Last year's run seemed like magic, the kind of stretch you get to see maybe once in a lifetime. This year the Brewers basically did it again. For a while there pretty much every pitcher change and double switch seemed to work. Counsell is apparently a winning wizard, a master manager. It's rare that I feel fortunate to be a Brewers fan, but the way Counsell has had the boys playing the last two Septembers, I definitely feel fortunate now. Next year teams will only get to have 28-man rosters during September, so maybe this is the end of Brewers magic. With the way our roster is banged up after this incredible push, I don't know what will happen when the Brewers go to Washington for the wild card game tomorrow. But we'll always have #Craigtember. Thanks, Craig.
Grace and peace,
BMH
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