#74 GOAT???

Last football season, I heard from football commentator after football commentator who had anointed Tom Brady the GOAT (Greatest of All Time). Brady has without doubt had a remarkable career, but I think most people overestimate his individual value because of his team's success, particularly the Patriots' postseason success. So let's make this simple. If we sports fans are going to collectively decide that an individual is the GOAT, that person should have individual stats that are clearly superior to others. We have numbers, so let's be objective about this. [Note: I'm going to be using regular season stats. Postseason stats are important, and Brady especially has had much success there, but some QBs don't have a large sample of postseason games to look at, so comparing stats doesn't work so well there.] Let's compare the stats on 5 high-level QBs:

QB 1: 266 games, 539 TDs (5.7 TD %, 32.42 TD/16 games), 251 INT (2.7 INT %, 15.10 INT/16 games), 65.3 completion %, 96.5 passer rating, 7.17 ANY/A*

QB 2: 253 games, 488 TDs (5.5 TD %, 30.86 TD/16 games), 160 INT (1.8 INT %, 10.12 INT/16 games), 63.9 completion %, 97.6 passer rating, 7.12 ANY/A*

QB 3: 249 games, 488 TDs (5.3 TD %,  31.36 TD/16 games), 228 INT (2.5 INT %, 14.65 INT/16 games), 66.9 completion %, 96.7 passer rating, 6.95 ANY/A*

QB 4: 149 games, 313 TDs (6.4 TD %, 33.61 TD/16 games), 78 INT (1.6 INT %, 8.38 INT/16 games), 65.1 completion %, 103.8 passer rating, 7.40 ANY/A*

QB 5: 96 games, 161 TDs (5.7 TD %, 26.83 TD/16 games), 56 INT (2.0 INT %, 9.33 INT/16 games), 64.0 completion %, 98.8 passer rating, 6.90 ANY/A*

*ANY/A = Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks) - This advanced statistic is very popular with football analysts because it's supposed to be a comprehensive passing stat. I would say it's the most important single statistic here.

So who's the GOAT? There aren't huge differences between the first three QBs, other than the interception stats, where QB 2 clearly takes the lead. However, ANY/A says that QB 1 makes up for his interceptions in other areas. If anyone is the GOAT, I'd say it's QB 4, whose rates come out ahead (and sometimes significantly so) in every category except completion percentage. Now the careers of QB 4 and QB 5 are not yet as long, so their numbers might decline as they age.

So who are these mystery QBs? QB 1 is Peyton Manning. QB 2 is Tom Brady. QB 3 is Drew Brees. QB 4 is Aaron Rodgers. QB 5 is Russell Wilson. In this comparison of major passing statistics, it seems clear to me that Brady is not head and shoulders above the rest. Brady is one of the best QBs ever, but to call him the GOAT is a huge disrespect to Peyton Manning, who has better numbers in several categories. (Also, when it comes to MVPs, an award designed to recognize individual excellence, Manning has 5 to Brady's 3, and one of Brady's awards was won after Manning's retirement.) Plus, in almost every way, Rodgers' numbers are superior to both Manning and Brady. Rodgers hasn't played as long, but we should probably spend more time talking about him as the GOAT. Now that you've seen these numbers, you deserve to have me yell at you if you claim Brady is the GOAT. Brady is great, but let's not give him more credit than he's due. 
Grace and peace,
BMH

P.S. Here are some playoff stats if you're interested:

Manning: 27 games, 1.48 TD/game, 0.93 INT/game, 63.2 completion %, 87.4 passer rating, 6.29 ANY/A

Brady: 37 games, 1.92 TD/game, 0.84 INT/game, 62.8 completion %, 90.9 passer rating, 6.44 ANY/A

Brees: 13 games, 2.23 TD/game, 0.69 INT/game, 65.9 completion %, 100.7 passer rating, 7.57 ANY/A

Rodgers: 16 games, 2.25 TD/game, 0.63 INT/game, 63.5 completion %, 99.4 passer rating, 7.05 ANY/A

Wilson: 12 games, 1.67 TD/game, 0.92 INT/game, 61.6 completion %, 94.1 passer rating, 6.62 ANY/A

Brady certainly has an edge over Manning here, but Brees and Rodgers have much better numbers than Brady. (Granted, Brady has played in many more games. This is why comparisons are difficult, so I left this out of the body of the blog post.) So, we also can't claim Brady is the GOAT based on individual playoff stats.